it’s always a good time to make wise decisions
General Colin Powell was one of the great leaders of the last generation. Powell served as a diplomat and politician and was the first African American Secretary of State. Famous writer and speaker Oren Harari wrote two books about the renowned military leader and statesman who, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, handled twenty-eight crises, including Operation Desert Storm. In GovLeaders.org, Harari quotes Powell on the wise use of information in decision-making.
"Use the formula P=40 to 70, in which P stands for the probability of success and the numbers indicate the percentage of information acquired." Part II: "Once the information is in the 40 to 70 range, go with your gut."
Harari comments, “Powell's advice is don't take action if you have only enough information to give you less than a 40 percent chance of being right, but don't wait until you have enough facts to be 100 percent sure, because by then it is almost always too late.”
To this proposal, the writer of the article explained. “His instinct is right: Today, excessive delays in the name of information-gathering leads to analysis paralysis. Procrastination in the name of reducing risk actually increases risk.”
(Oren Harari, Quotations from Chairman Powell – A Leadership Primer. GovLeaders.org, 1996)
Making good decisions can sometimes be tricky.
A common mistake is to act impetuously without adequate knowledge. If you’re like me, you are saying to yourself, “Been there, done that!” Often these choices are driven by emotion and end up doing more harm than good. By Powell’s standards, we take a wrong turn because we are not in the 40-70 range of probability of success. Sometimes this trap befalls novices and young people. Since I’m now sixty-seven, pretty much everyone is young!
On the other hand, experience leads us to desire ever-increasing information as we age. This tendency happens because, as older adults, we commit the first mistake enough times to make us a little gun shy about decisions of consequence. “I’ve made many mistakes and suffered for it, and I’m not going down that road again.” The General might tell us that if we continue waiting for surety, the opportunity will be lost, plus there is rarely a sure thing.
Through many leadership experiences, I learned that if I was confronted with a controversial issue and needed assistance to make sound decisions, there were two kinds of people. If I took the problem to one type of person, it would get worse, while if I took it to another individual, things would get better. The process reminds me of an adage that taking a crisis to some people is like pouring gasoline on a fire, and the fire gets bigger! Instead of looking for solutions, this person reacts emotionally and makes the situation worse. But if I took my conundrum to a wiser person, I would find possible solutions and a better perspective.
The trick is finding balanced decision-making processes. Here are some decision-making suggestions.
· Don’t make significant choices when you are angry. Though some anger is justified, it is usually a bad idea to determine a path while you are in that state of mind. James, who wrote one of the books of the New Testament, instructs us to be slow about getting angry because this emotion usually does not feed our desire to live with integrity. Anger often occurs when something doesn’t go our way. It is often self-centered and therefore clouds objective thinking and active listening, which are necessary ingredients in the decision process.
· Do seek advice from wise counselors. It is always helpful to consult friends when we are about to act on a life-altering idea. I have friends I consult with, and I can usually read on their faces before they open their mouths if I am about to do something stupid.
· Pray for a sense of peace about determining a direction. Tapping into the wisdom of God is never a bad idea, and prayer also settles our minds and releases unhealthy emotions productively.
· You will make many wrong choices but don’t set up your tent there. Permit yourself to regret a foolish choice but do not allow remorse to become part of the fabric of your life. While you are lamenting, life is bypassing you. Regret for a moment, learn the lesson, then move on.
· Give grace to others. Jesus warned us against trying to take a speck out of someone’s eye while not recognizing we have several logs in our own eyes. It is helpful to contemplate the kindness and patience God bestows upon you, making it easier to feel the same towards others.
· Consider possible outcomes and be comfortable with the possibility of failure. One wrong decision does not define your life unless you allow it to do so. A wise person once told me that if I am never-failing, I’m not doing much.
· Don’t make a choice that will transgress your values. We tend to regret choices contrary to our beliefs and that compromise our integrity. Our mission and values form the boundaries of good decisions.
· Some of your best experiences will be the result of taking a chance. A big decision can be scary when we are near the 40% range of information, yet it can still be a good choice.
· Don’t take yourself too seriously and employ a good sense of humor. I like the saying, “Bad choices make good stories!”
Many years ago, after graduating from college, I applied to several churches that needed a pastor. My wife and I visited two of them, where I preached “trial” sermons. Both churches offered me the job, but I was not convinced either was a good fit for me. I then learned of a new church whose founding pastor was returning to a professorship, and they were looking for a leader. Gail and I spent the weekend visiting a little town near the state capital, Harrisburg. The borough was Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, which strangely enough was also the name of the small town in Indiana where I lived the year before going to college.
Gail and I fell in love with the area, the people, and the church. But would they hire me? Other churches had turned me down because I had been divorced. We were convinced this would be the location of our future, so before we knew if the PA church would hire me, we turned down the other two offers. The decision was scary but, as General Powell said, sometimes you must “go with your gut.” We trusted our intuition, they hired me, and I spent my entire thirty-eight-year career serving Capital Area Christian Church which became Vibrant-A Christian Church. Accepting this position was one of the best decisions I have ever made.
Live Inspired!
Don Mark
